- The biggest influence on BEAD could come from outside the government
- "Brendan Carr will not be the most important person for telecom policy," Blair Levin of New Street Research told Fierce Network
- With Starlink, Elon Musk has a strong incentive to push for changes to BEAD policy
With Election Day in the rearview mirror, the U.S. is considering what a second Donald Trump administration means for the country. For the broadband industry, that means wondering what will happen with the $42.5 billion Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) Program. The long and the short of it? The biggest influence on BEAD could come from outside the government.
“The bottom line is Brendan Carr will not be the most important person for telecom policy” when it comes to BEAD, New Street Research’s Blair Levin told Fierce, referencing the likely future pick for Federal Communications Commission chairman. “That will be Elon Musk.”
The Elon Musk angle
As Levin explained, Musk – who owns satellite broadband service Starlink – has a strong incentive to push for changes to BEAD policy, particularly the current government preference for fiber. After all, every penny spent on fiber is a penny put toward Starlink’s competition.
“Why would he want BEAD money to fund fiber deployments that would reduce his addressable market?” Levin asked.
Musk already has the president-elect’s ear. As we noted elsewhere, Trump recently said of BEAD on a podcast: “We’re spending a trillion dollars to get cables all over the country, up to upstate areas where you have two farms, and they are spending millions of dollars to have a cable. Elon can do it for nothing.”
Musk also appears to have an ally in Carr, who backed Starlink when the FCC decided to revoke the company’s winnings from the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund (RDOF) auction. Levin added that Carr has increasingly aligned his views with the billionaire in recent months.
The fundamental question that will be in play under Trump is whether the government thinks satellite broadband is as good as fiber, Levin said.
Historically, the answer has been “no.” But as Trump indicated on the podcast, that could change. And such a shift would entirely change the dynamics of the BEAD program.
“If you think satellite is as good as fiber, why wouldn’t you fund it? It’s cheaper and can get it to people faster,” Levin said.
And if you take the fiber preference out of the equation, that raises questions about what purpose the high-cost threshold serves. From there, it becomes a race to the bottom to see who can serve broadband to each location in the cheapest possible way. Of course, by that standard, satellite will win.
Bandwidth issues
That said, there are inherent bandwidth issues that will limit the number of people Starlink can serve with its current spectrum and software. But Levin said Musk may simply press the FCC to grant it more spectrum to serve a broader swath of the country.
Fierce will have more on the potential impacts on wireless and spectrum today.
Despite the potential win for satellite, fiber still holds weight. Levin said that many states, which are in charge of awarding BEAD grants, will likely still prefer fiber deployments where feasible.
Can BEAD be delayed?
Joe Kane, director of broadband and spectrum policy at ITIF, said he expects the Trump administration will push to streamline the non-essential requirements of BEAD, “especially when it comes to politically charged issues like labor relations, and try to turn the money into shovels in the ground as quickly as possible.”
Many in the industry are wondering when we’ll get the ball rolling on BEAD. States that have already received the greenlight from NTIA may not issue money to subgrantees until fall 2025.
Kane can see BEAD under Trump panning out two different ways. The White House could ensure “a more technology neutral use of funds” which would leave more room for non-deployment activities, such as addressing adoption.
“I would expect that kind of outcome to be attractive especially to VP-elect Vance since he has been a supporter of the now defunct ACP,” he said.
On the other hand, “there's also a chance that they view BEAD as rotten to the core and decide to substantially scuttle it or try to slam on the brakes until they can completely retool the process.”
But that will depend on the status of BEAD once the new administration comes into office.
“I think it’s very unlikely that NTIA would be able to claw it back or stop states from proceeding according to their plans,” Kane added.
This story has been updated with comments from Joe Kane, ITIF's director of broadband and spectrum policy.
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