- AST SpaceMobile will have 60 BlueBird satellites up by 2026
- The firm is promising the launch of its next generation of satellites from summer this year
- Mobile Experts analyst Joe Madden finds that data from the BlueBirds will still be twenty times more expensive than terrestrial 5G
AST SpaceMobile - with the backing of multiple operators including AT&T, Rakuten, Verizon and Vodafone - is preparing to launch what the CEO calls a “full continuous service” by 2026.
Talking with Rakuten’s CEO Mickey Mikitani at MWC last week, AST’s chief Abel Avellan said that the firm will be launching initial services with 45 of its BlueBird satellites. “We are building 53 now,” he said. “We have committed to 60 launches.”
AST has launched six of these satellites so far. But analysts like Mobile Experts' Joe Madden aren’t convinced adding just a few dozen more will be enough to provide global coverage.
“We believe that AST can achieve coverage for the USA with 60 satellites, but this will fall short of the coverage needed for global customers,” Madden told Fierce in an email. We have previously heard that AST SpaceMobile will need at least 95 satellites up to provide global coverage.
In fact - although the CEO didn't mention it at MWC - the company has said before that it intends to launch 90+ satellites to enable global services. "We anticipate launching and deploying additional satellites beyond the initial 90 satellites to enhance coverage and system capacity," AST wrote.
As Fierce has reported before, AST has already demonstrated its ability to support video and phone calls. These, however, tend to be very precisely timed while the device is within the coverage area of the satellite.
It's true that AST has larger antennas than its major rival Starlink. However, Starlink, which is being used by T-Mobile and others for their direct-to-device (D2D) satellite services, has a much more aggressive launch schedule for its D2D satellites.
Data speeds from space
AST's relatively small fleet of satellites raises an interesting question about capacity and its ability to deliver sufficient speeds for practical use.
"The data speed is a tricky question," Madden said. "AST has mentioned throughput in the range of 20 Mbps, but that would be shared across a large number of users because these satellites cover a wide area."
"If they had more satellites, they could use tighter beams and reduce the number of users sharing each radio band," the analyst added.
"With their current plans, we’re expecting to see text capability as the primary offering, with voice calls as a possibility. True broadband (video streaming) would be impossibly expensive because one user would be taking the entire capacity. "
Madden’s analysis shows that the cost for terrestrial 5G is in the range of $0.30 per GB. In contrast, the cost for satellite-based non-terrestrial networks (NTN) will be in the range of $5 to $9 per GB, or “roughly 20X higher," he said.
“Based on this analysis we don’t expect the business models for mobile broadband to translate well into the NTN world,” Madden concluded. “It’s far more likely that the mobile operators will offer NTN/D2D as a differentiated service to manage the expectations of the users.”
The company disputes this. "Each satellite cell can provide 20Mbps," Cecilia Panozzo, SVP of marketing and communications at AST SpaceMobile told Fierce. "Each satellite has 2,800 cells [so] has a capacity of 1 million packages a month."
She argues that the AST service will be "very effective" in less populated areas.
Block 2 is coming
There will also be updates coming to AST's satellites. Although AST's constellation - or swarm - will not be nearly as large as Starlink's, the company is promoting its satellites, especially its Block 2 - or 2nd generation satellites - as the largest communication arrays in low earth orbit.
The first Block 2 satellite is expected to be launched around June this year. The company expects at least 2 launches with SpaceX this year - possibly more - and 1 with Blue Origin. That launch cadence will get heavier in 2026.
So no matter how operators differentiate the service, expect more from AST through 2025 and 2026.