Is 2025 the year private 5G goes mainstream? One analyst says yes

  • Cisco has linked up with NEC to sell private 5G in EMEA

  • Analyst Roy Chua said that 2025 could be the year private 5G becomes mainstream in North America and Europe

  • NEC said the Cisco link-up will allow it sell private 5G tech in EMEA but move global over time

2025 looks like the year that private 5G will go mainstream in Europe, North America and parts of Asia, outside of China, according to Roy Chua, principal analyst at AvidThink, who spoke with Fierce about Cisco’s recent move to work with NEC on delivering 5G private networks. The partnership between the two vendors shows that private 5G technology's importance is growing.

Cisco and NEC are kicking off the solely 5G-focused program to install and maintain private networks in the Middle East and Europe - the EMEA region - but moving global over time, NEC said. 

The relationship is specifically focused on Cisco's standalone 5G core and its Cloud Control Center solution. We asked Cisco for more detail on this but they hadn't replied by press time on Wednesday.

"Considering the EMEA region as a whole, we believe the partnership is more about leveraging NEC’s systems Integration expertise and having an end-to-end portfolio of private 5G RAN (NEC) and mobile core (Cisco) solutions," noted Asad Khan, 5G research director at SNS Telecom & IT  in an email. "However, in Africa, NEC’s NEC XON business unit – which has a footprint in over 16 African countries – could significantly enhance Cisco's private networking reach in the continent."

Chua told Fierce that "The go-to-market requires packaging with private 5G [radio access network] equipment — the integration is done by NEC as part of an end-to-end [system].”

He added the partnership does give Cisco more reach into EMEA, and NEC's integration and consulting services will certainly help during the early days of private 5G rollout, which often are vertical-specific and require integration with industry-specific applications and infrastructure (e.g., transportation, manufacturing, mining, etc.)"

Manufacturing is the top vertical using 5G private networking, according to Analysys Mason. The firm noted that Mercedes Benz, Siemens and many others are using the technology in its most recent tracker. Fierce has reported that major vehicle manufacturers like Tesla are rolling out 5G private networking across the globe now.

2025 is the year for private 5G

Chua said that 2025 will likely represent the year that 5G private networking really starts to get on track in Europe, North America and parts of Asia, outside of China. In part this is because operators are finally moving to a standalone 5G network that doesn’t rely on 4G to work, although enterprises can use unlicensed shared spectrum - in some countries - to deploy a 5G core all on their very own if they can get access to such spectrum.

“There is finally more uptake and willingness to deploy private 5G and a recognition of the value that 5G can complement Wi-Fi and handle unique use cases that Wi-Fi might struggle with [factory floor robotics, anyone?] and for which wired Ethernet is too expensive and inflexible,” the analyst noted.

“We've been expecting faster growth in the private wireless market in the past but it's been a slow though steady path. I think analysts are expecting better traction as we enter 2025,” Chua concluded.

The Cisco/NEC combo will have their work cut out for them if they are planning to take on Huawei and Nokia in the private networking space.

Dell’Oro Group has said that Nokia is the top private network supplier outside of China, but Chinese vendor Huawei is still the No. 1 provider because of its massive domestic and BRIC-focused market. Ericsson is behind Huawei and Nokia in the third position for private networking.