- Like it or not, 6G is likely to get introduced in 2030
- But it will be more of an evolution of 5G rather than a wholesale lift, according to Ericsson CEO Börje Ekholm
- Future wireless “G” upgrade cycles will be more software oriented than hardware
Given that 5G is mostly a big disappointment in terms of ROI for operators, would now be a good time to tell them they need to think about big hardware investments for 6G?
Nah, probably not.
But Ericsson CEO Börje Ekholm chose perhaps the road less traveled when he was asked about 6G during Ericsson’s Q4 earnings call today. He advised everyone “not to think of 6G as a normal new generation.”
He acknowledged that 6G is probably going to get introduced in 2030 as an evolution of 5G. Ericsson should know, since it’s a big contributor to the whole 3GPP standards-setting processes that develop new generations of wireless technology.
“We should think of 6G, not as a new kind of type of generation where you upgrade from 3G to 4G or 4G to 5G,” and you needed to upgrade the whole network, he said.
6G will be more of an evolution of 5G and 5G Advanced, which are more cloud-based iterations of wireless technology, he said.
Of course, operators moving to 6G will need to have a 5G network and architecture built out – and many of them have not done so to the extent that U.S. operators have. Even inside the U.S., T-Mobile is the sole carrier with a nationwide, commercial 5G standalone (SA) network. Standalone 5G is the step that comes after non-standalone 5G, which still relies on the 4G LTE core.
“We are still very early in the 5G build-out cycle,” Ekholm said.
Ekholm emphasized the evolution to software upgrades rather than wholesale hardware replacements.
“I encourage you not to think of 6G as a normal new generation,” he said, noting that will allow Ericsson’s customers – the mobile operators – to have much smoother investment cycles.
While its shares sunk Friday after missing earnings estimates, Ericsson’s sales in North America grew 54% in Q4 2024, driven largely by its $14 billion multi-year contract with AT&T to upgrade its network to open Radio Access Technology (RAN). AT&T is in the midst of ripping out old equipment, including all of Nokia’s, and replacing it with new Ericsson open RAN gear.
Setting investor expectations
Ekholm’s comments are likely an attempt to set the expectations of the investment community, said Recon Analytics Analyst Daryl Schoolar. And for the record, he agrees with the CEO’s assessment of 6G’s likely trajectory.
Historically, going from one “G” to the next “G” has meant big bumps in investments on the part of operators. “6G is going to be a flatter cycle,” Schoolar said.
One of the big reasons is that aforementioned move to software. “Sure, there’s going to be an investment as you go through this because you might need more servers to deal with more capacity,” as well as other equipment upgrades, he said. “But it’s not going to be like the old days where you go in and just totally rip out equipment and put in new equipment.”
Based on surveys Schoolar has conducted with operators, a lot of them say they don’t want 6G to be another big rip and replace effort.
“They want to leverage what they have and they haven’t gotten a really great ROI on it yet,” he said. If Ekholm's predictions come true, it seems like they'll be in luck.