- Analysts say recent price adjustments do not amount to a U.S. wireless price war
- A “promotions war” might be more accurate
- All told, the latest price moves are viewed as advantageous for consumers
Is there a wireless price war currently underway? Judging by all the free phones, new promotions and price guarantees that are flooding the market, it sure looks like one. Just this week, T-Mobile unveiled new price plans. Hours later, Comcast came out with its new Xfinity Mobile plan.
Those moves led us to consult analysts, wireless deal trackers and carrier executives for answers. The verdict: Competition is at an all-time high, but it's not the cutthroat variety that threatens carriers' profitability or that leads to the kinds of price wars found in parts of Europe.
In fact, analysts emphatically say that there’s no price war happening in the U.S. and they don’t see anything imminent. Carriers are maintaining healthy margins while consumers are getting more bang for the buck.
That’s the TL;DR. For the play-by-play, read on. Spoiler alert: There will be references to baseball. Not that I’m a big baseball afficionado. It’s spring, so it just seems appropriate. Roll with it, OK?
Nope, no price war
First at bat, we have Jeff Moore, principal of Wave7 Research, which chronicles every promotion and price change in prepaid and postpaid wireless services across the industry.
“I do not sense that there is a price war. Verizon has been unusually promotional and its ad spending in March was surprisingly high, but there is no overall price war,” he said, noting that all three big U.S. carriers bundle in other services like internet and streaming video.
Ditto from Avi Greengart, president of Techsponential, a device expert who also closely follows the services space. In his conversations with senior executives at the Big 3 U.S. carriers, he’s heard that smartphone subsidy rates – without tariffs – are relatively stable. As for a price war? Not really.
“We are starting to see operators trying to compete based on service price stability,” he said, noting the recent multi-year price guarantees by the likes of Verizon and Comcast. T-Mobile also followed this week with its own 5-year price guarantee.
But there is 'promotional activity' and 'active competition'
What about the folks at Navi? Surely they’ll know if there’s a price war. Their whole business is built around comparing phone deals and making recommendations on wireless service plans.
“There is no question that promotional activity and promotional value have been increasing over the last six months,” said Adeeva Fritz, senior director at Navi. “We have no comment as to whether this rises to the level of a price war.”
Fair enough. Not a swing or a miss, just a pass.
Moving on. Roger Entner, founder of Recon Analytics, noted that prices are going up, not down. AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon all raised prices this year in one form or another. That’s doesn’t happen in a price war.
“I wouldn't go to the point of calling it a price war, but I would say it is healthy competition,” he said. “The last time I checked the prices are going up in the industry. Service revenue is going up and prices are holding pretty much stable. We have active competition.”
All signs point to a 'promotions war'
’Nuff said. Let’s turn to the financial analysts. They’re constantly watching this space for anything that’s affects the carriers’ bottom lines.
Craig Moffett of the equity research firm MoffettNathanson echoed Entner’s point about higher prices, at least at the service level. He doesn’t consider this a price war.
However, “there’s no mistaking that we are in a promotions war, with handset subsidies reaching all-time highs and, in many cases, now accounting for as much as half the revenue expected over a customer’s contract life,” he told me via email.
The analysts at New Street Research published a report this week reviewing recent offers from Verizon, Comcast and T-Mobile. They acknowledged that competitive intensity is hard to measure but concluded that “it seems to us that it is rising.” They think the increased competitive intensity is driven by slower net additions across the board, a trend they’ve been predicting for a while now.
AT&T and Verizon call it a 'competitive market'
Since carriers are the ones pulling the levers here, let’s see what they’re saying.
During Verizon’s Q1 2025 earnings call on Tuesday, Chairman and CEO Hans Vestberg talked about the usual “it’s a competitive market” phraseology that we hear on almost every call every quarter of every year (seemingly).
“It's always a competitive market. We pulse in and out [with] promotions as we see volumes in the market and when we have an opportunity to go for volumes, we go for it,” said Sowmyanarayan Sampath, president of Verizon’s Consumer Group. “We like our playbook. It's an aggressive playbook.”
AT&T CFO Pascal Desroches had a similar message about the state of competition during AT&T’s Q1 earnings call today, calling it “both healthy and competitive.” CEO John Stankey stressed their focus on “high value customers,” especially in the converged space.
T-Mobile says 'competition is vibrant'
Earlier this week, Jon Freier, president of the T-Mobile Consumer Group and a 31-year wireless industry veteran, told us about T-Mobile’s new price plans and 5-year guarantee.
His take on the broader situation? No price war.
“Far from it. I wouldn't call it a price war at all,” he said. “Competition is always vibrant in this space, and there's always going to be competition, either on rates or competition on devices. The nature of competition kind of ebbs and flows.”
Consumers are the beneficiaries, according to Freier.
“The way I think about it is when you look at what consumers are getting for what they pay, it's better than ever. And then when you look at the health of the overall industry, it's better than ever,” he said.
What makes a price war?
The nature of promotions – by definition – is always changing and wireless service plans are composed of various bundles – like streaming TV services – and discounts. That makes it harder to spot a price war than in the commodities space, for example, where things like oil or wheat are generally identical so it’s easier to compare and contrast prices.
What would constitute a wireless price war? Entner said if postpaid wireless carriers were to mimic lower-priced cable rivals and offer something like $25/line, that would be a price war. But the carriers are smarter than that and don’t want chase after the least profitable customers.
We'll take our sources' word for it and refrain from calling it a price war — for now. But if the game changes, all bets are off.