Industry Voices are op-eds from industry experts or analysts invited to contribute by Fierce staff. They do not represent the opinions of Fierce.
You may have heard that T-Mobile will be acquiring the wireless operations of UScellular — and it appears that a majority of subscribers to regional carriers will become T-Mobile subscribers on a single day in 2025.
Just how many? UScellular has more than 4 million postpaid subscribers and more than 400,000 prepaid subscribers. Subscriber counts for most regional carriers are not known publicly, but I doubt that their combined total exceeds 4.4 million.
A regional carrier history lesson
During a meeting at Sprint in 2007, I asked a member of Sprint’s sales force about Verizon’s operations and efforts in Oklahoma City. She replied, to my shock, that Verizon did not have a network or wireless sales efforts in this market, which is large enough that it now has an NBA franchise.
Soon, that changed, as Verizon in 2008 announced its planned $28.1 billion acquisition of Alltel. It was the largest purchase of a regional carrier in U.S. history.
Another large regional carrier, Dobson Communications, was acquired by AT&T in 2007. Dobson Communications operated in parts of 17 states.
The decades following saw regional carriers, including Golden State Cellular, Element Mobile, Plateau Wireless, and Corr Wireless, face the same fate.
Fast-forward to 2022, I wrote in Fierce Wireless about how few regional carriers were left, likening the carriers’ demise in number to how the population of buffaloes severely declined years ago.
Acquisitions continued in 2023, with Verizon and AT&T acquiring West Central Wireless of Texas, Indigo Wireless of Pennsylvania, Pioneer Cellular of Oklahoma and IV Cellular of Illinois.
The scale game
Wireless is a scale game. Operating a nationwide network and thousands of stores is a massive enterprise and this provides advantages to large carriers.
Also, regional carriers have a long history of making money via roaming revenues from national carriers. It was not long ago that Verizon had almost no network in Kentucky. The national carrier focused its capital on other markets and relied on Bluegrass Cellular for roaming in the Bluegrass State.
Now that Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile have nationwide coverage in urban and rural areas in nearly all 50 states, there is far less roaming, which means less revenue.
This process was accelerated by T-Mobile’s acquisition of Sprint, which allowed T-Mobile to plug some gaps in its network. For example, Sprint had excellent coverage and a strong retail presence in West Virginia. Now, T-Mobile has excellent coverage in the state. There were only a handful of T-Mobile stores in the Mountain State when the Sprint deal was announced, but now there are 46.
Who's left?
So, who's left among regional carriers? C Spire Wireless operates a statewide network that covers Mississippi. Cellcom covers much of eastern Wisconsin. GCI is solid in Alaska. Other well-known regional carriers are Carolina West Wireless, Appalachian Wireless and Viaero Wireless.
There is no guarantee that the T-Mobile/UScellular deal will be approved, but I think it's likely. The acquisition of Sprint was a larger deal, but it was approved.
Should the T-Mobile/UScellular deal go through, competition will be fine, largely due to the cable companies. Spectrum Mobile and Xfinity Mobie have already amassed more than 15 million subscribers and Cox Mobile launched in December 2022. Optimum Mobile has nearly 400,000 subscribers and Mediacom Mobile is launching. There are also signs that some smaller cable companies could launch.
In addition, EchoStar is building a national network that is being used by Boost Mobile. If this network gets good enough, the company could provide another option for MVNOs.
Plus, MVNOs also are positive for wireless competition. For example, Consumer Cellular, PureTalk and Red Pocket are three MVNOs that are running TV and radio advertising promising major savings versus the national carriers while using the same networks. In addition, there are numerous MVNOs providing service and some are just launching, including MobileX and LinkUp Mobile.
It's sad to watch the regional carrier demise, but don't worry. Cable companies, Boost Mobile and MVNOs will provide solid competition to Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile.
Jeff Moore is principal of Wave7 Research, a wireless research firm that covers U.S. postpaid, prepaid and smartphone competition. Jeff has 25 years of telecom industry experience, including 13 years of competitive intelligence work for Sprint. Follow him on X @wave7jeff.