- Private networking vendors like Huawei and Nokia top over 50 contenders in the space
- Analysts don't expect much actual action in Q1 but possibly a flurry of announcements around MWC
- Technologies like multi-carrier neutral host will continue to be hot in 2025
With a year plus of proofs-of-concept (POC) in the bag, 5G private networks are primed for commercial uptake in 2025. Early adopters - like Porsche and Tesla - have paved the way for deployments to really get rolling in 2025. But to hear analysts tell it, the market vibe is less hare and more tortoise.
“For 2025, I don't expect an immediate uptick in private network deployments," AvidThink Founder Roy Chua told Fierce. That said, "what I've heard from vendors in the space is that there is increasing interest and willingness in the mid-market to install private wireless to address coverage (indoors and outdoors), reliability, isolation challenges."
We previously noted that private 5G networks have already made inroads on military bases across the U.S. and on factory floors at companies like John Deere. But Chua said the potential scope of deployments in 2025 is much, much wider.
“Beyond mines, warehouses, logistics hubs, event venues, we're hearing about golf courses, retailers, universities, and even retirement communities showing interest,” he said.
Meanwhile, Asad Khan, SNS Telecom & IT 5G research director, noted that per a recent SNS report "another emerging trend is the growing recognition of private network-based neutral host solutions for enhancing public cellular coverage in indoor locations where DAS systems are considered too costly and complex to deploy."
Rising tide
But when will the private 5G chickens come home to roost? Well, it's not exactly clear.
Khan said that while "network deployments tend to be relatively evenly distributed throughout the year, Q1 does often see a flurry of announcements as many deployments from the previous year are made public."
Chua in contrast noted that historically the second quarter is a stronger growth period than the first quarter of a year. “I don't know if we will see large announcements of deals but given MWC Barcelona is in the first week of March, and Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia are still pushing forward on the market, it would be reasonable to expect announcements on this front — likely with some slicing, edge, or AI workload tied in,” the analyst said.
Speaking of Huawei, Ericsson and Nokia, Dell’Oro Group said in September 2024 that Huawei remains the largest private wireless radio access network (RAN) supplier globally, while Nokia continues to lead outside of China. Nokia’s Nordic rival, Ericsson, is the third-placed private wireless provider with Samsung following them.
Stefan Pongratz, Dell’Oro VP, told Fierce at the time that “the $20 billion-plus enterprise RAN opportunity remains largely untapped” with “more than 50” private wireless RAN and core providers, as well as system integrators chasing that opportunity. Those 50-plus private wireless contenders include Celona and Highway 9, among many others.
Fierce will be on the show floor at Mobile World Congress in March, so we'll be on hand to break down any major private networking deals that are announced. Stay tuned!