- CTIA this week applauded FCC Chairman Brendan Carr’s “swift action” in launching a Notice of Inquiry (NOI) on the upper C-band spectrum
- But the celebrations might be a little too soon because Elon Musk’s SpaceX is eyeing the spectrum for something else
- As the saying goes: It’s not over ’til it’s over
Is it time to pop the champagne? Not quite, analysts say. The wireless industry might have won the first round in the upper C-band kerfuffle, but given that Elon Musk is the challenger, nothing is a done deal.
What are we talking about? Get the popcorn because this will take a minute.
Earlier this week, the wireless industry, namely CTIA, cheered FCC Chairman Brendan Carr’s move to launch a Notice of Inquiry (NOI) into the upper C-band – meaning more licensed spectrum being pumped into the pipeline for wireless carriers.
But analysts say it’s too early to celebrate. That’s because Elon Musk’s SpaceX is eyeing the same spectrum for shared satellite use and it’s not at all clear where this will eventually land.
For the most part, wireless lobbyists are calling the NOI a win, and for good reason. The majority of the draft NOI, released Thursday, seeks comment on a number of questions related to “more intensive use” of the upper 220 megahertz portion of the C-band. It asks whether this part of the band should be aligned with the mobile 5G applications already used in other parts of the band – you know, the types of services that drew a record $80 billion in the C-band auction a few years ago.
But reading the fine print, analysts say it’s not a slam dunk for wireless operators. There’s wiggle room, for example, where the draft NOI seeks comment on “how to provide opportunities for more intensive use of the spectrum, whether terrestrial or satellite based.”
In other words, it’s clear as mud.
“Most of the notice is written with terrestrial allocation in mind, with what appears to be minor modifications in response to the SpaceX request,” TMF Associates founder Tim Farrar told Fierce. “It’s still uncertain how this will evolve over the coming months when this consultation is opened up. Everything nowadays is subject to uncertainty.”
The NOI is just in a draft state at this point. Carr said the commission will vote on it during its February 27 open meeting. That will launch a comment period where the agency seeks input on a whole bunch of questions – all with an eye toward more intensive use of the spectrum, which is currently used by a dwindling video distribution market delivered via satellite.
In a note for investors today, New Street Research policy analyst and former FCC official Blair Levin acknowledged CTIA’s praise for the NOI, but he cautioned: “We don’t think the wireless industry should be popping champagne yet. For one thing: Carr did not say he was opening up the spectrum for 5G wireless commercial use. For another, Starlink has already weighed in, advocating that the FCC do something different than what CTIA would want.”
How did we get here?
Let’s dial it back a week. That’s when SpaceX wrote a letter to the FCC proposing the agency modernize 200 MHz of the upper C-band by sharing the band across multiple operators. Farrar flagged the letter on – where else? – Elon’s Musk’s social media site X.
SpaceX wrote: “Establishing a modernized sharing framework for the upper C-band that welcomes multiple new entrants is essential to solidify American leadership in 6G, which will interweave terrestrial and satellite networks into a seamless customer experiences.”
As Levin surmised: “Simply stated, Starlink does not want an auction of C-band spectrum; it wants to be able to share the spectrum.”
CTIA declined to comment on the SpaceX letter, but it cheered Carr’s move on the NOI, calling it “swift action in exploring how best to make the upper C-band available for 5G wireless commercial use.”
The problem is, sharing the upper C-band spectrum isn’t exactly how wireless carriers have envisioned using it. The spectrum is attractive for wireless carriers because it’s mid-band spectrum that’s contiguous with the C-band spectrum that they’re already using, said industry analyst and Recon Analytics founder Roger Entner.
“It would make a lot more sense to use this terrestrially,” Entner said, noting that the spectrum should be allocated via an auction – as opposed to awarding it to anyone for free. “If they really want to open it up, open it up for flexible use. If Starlink wants to bid on the spectrum, let it.”
A 'power play'
While anyone will tell you that “all spectrum is valuable,” as Entner noted, some frequencies are better than others depending on the application.
For example, Farrar said the upper C-band spectrum is not particularly well suited for direct-to-device (D2D) services, which is all the rage these days – if that’s what SpaceX is considering for Starlink.
It’s also all that not well suited for broadband services, either. “It’s hard to see how they would use it for Starlink broadband because C-band is such a low frequency. It would not be particularly useful compared to the higher frequencies that they’re using for their existing broadband services,” Farrar said, referring to higher frequency Ku spectrum.
“It would not be a useful band for them compared to other bands, but it’s a power play, in my mind,” Farrar said. “If SpaceX can get this, then what’s to stop them from getting any other spectrum they want or undermining anyone else’s position unless they defer to SpaceX or cooperate with SpaceX?”
Who wins?
Levin titled today’s research note thusly: On C-Band, Who Wins? Musk or Wireless?
His conclusion? He’s giving the edge to wireless, but with caveats.
He noted that in the last year, Carr has often been a strong advocate for Musk and satellites on issues such as the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund (RDOF) and the Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) program. But while the outcome is “far from certain,” Levin gives an edge to the wireless interests.
Given Carr’s long history on spectrum and his views about the success of the C-band auction, “we would think he would favor the CTIA position,” Levin said, while acknowledging Musk’s power in the Trump administration.
There are “many other spectrum related issues” where Carr can, with less political pain, provide Starlink and Musk what they want, Levin said. A wireless auction will produce a lot of money for the U.S. government – something Congress and President Trump likely favor – and multiple compromises are possible, such as allocating some spectrum for exclusive use and some to satellite sharing.
Farrar reached a similar conclusion. “I think at this point in time, the most likely outcome is this spectrum will be reallocated to terrestrial and there will be incentives provided for that transition,” he said. “But everything nowadays is subject to uncertainty.”