- It’s not clear how enterprise 5G could develop under the second Trump administration
- Analysts expect net neutrality will be a bigger issue than developing private wireless or opening up new 5G spectrum
- Elon Musk’s Tesla experience with private 5G networks could be a catalyst
It’s uncertain how the incoming Trump administration will affect the growing 5G enterprise market, but it’s quite possible that Elon Musk’s prominent role in the nascent regime could change the 5G private networking environment in the United States for the better.
A lot of this depends on how Tesla's global factory deployment of private 5G develops over time, according to AvidThink principal analyst Roy Chua.
The electric vehicle manufacturer reportedly has started to roll out the technology at its factories in Berlin, Germany; Austin, Texas; and Shanghai, China. “As part of a push to increase domestic manufacturing, it's possible that private networking becomes part of the overall template for factory buildouts or retrofit,” Chua told Fierce via email.
That is clearly a best-case scenario for Nokia, Ericsson, Celona and other private wireless players in the U.S. It’s unlikely to be something that’s taken on by lower-tier manufacturing operations with fewer resources, but could be a way forward for large manufacturing and pharmaceutical plants.
Tesla’s private network push, which Ericsson is rumored to be rolling out, could help to further stimulate other enterprises down the 5G private networking path, said Recon Analytics analyst Daryl Schoolar.
“If Tesla can show a benefit from deploying a private mobile network, I believe it would help raise awareness and motivate other companies to follow Tesla’s lead,” Schoolar said.
"Yes," agreed SNS Telecom & IT 5G research director Asad Khan. "Musk’s and Tesla’s private networking initiative will encourage other manufacturers and industrial enterprises to explore and adopt the technology, particularly as the practical benefits of Tesla’s private 5G deployments become more well-known – for example, a significant enhancement in AGV (Automated Guided Vehicle) communications following the transition from Wi-Fi to a hybrid private 5G and public cellular coverage extension solution at Tesla’s 12 million square foot Gigafactory in Dallas, Texas."
Nonetheless, private 5G players will still need to heavily push enterprise 5G so that less forward-looking businesses aren’t stuck on Wi-Fi or 4G. “Enterprise 5G will continue to have to sell itself to enterprises to drive adoption,” neXt Curve executive analyst Leonard Lee noted.
Generally, deployment costs are starting to come down and device support is getting better, Chua said. He noted that it looks like deployment complexity and time are lower and he expects improved uptake in 2025, even as more Wi-Fi 7 is getting installed.
"The private wireless vendors I'm speaking to appear cautiously bullish as well for the next year," Chua noted.
Operators and the private network scene
“If the economy continues to improve, I believe it will help provide businesses to invest more in 5G solutions,” Schoolar stated. “It could also alleviate U.S. operators’ concerns about offering differentiated services to business, such as quality of service on demand, as net neutrality as an issue should cool off.”
"We expect the market to be a mixed bag of networks operating in licensed mobile operator frequencies, 3.5 GHz CBRS spectrum, 2.5 GHz EBS licenses and industry-specific bands – for example, Band 8/n106 (900 MHz) broadband spectrum for utilities," noted Khan. "With well over 400,000 CBSDs (CBRS Devices) in operation, we don’t see any feasible path forward for AT&T’s controversial proposal of relocating existing CBRS users to the 3.1-3.3 GHz band."
However, in the coming months, the SNS analyst said, it is likely that the FCC will accommodate proposals aimed at accelerating CBRS adoption among service providers and enterprises. "Including potentially increasing transmit power levels and interference protection for critical private network users in indoor facilities," he said.
The last Trump administration started the move toward mid-band C-band spectrum in 2018, but Chua said he doesn’t know whether the new administration will be focused on delivering more useable 5G spectrum for operators and enterprises, as C-band has done for AT&T and Verizon.
“I don't know if it's clear whether the new Trump administration will look favorably - or care about - the MNO's wrangling of trying to wrestle additional mid-band spectrum,” Chua said. “They will definitely be looking at spectrum policy and balance the needs of the government and defense industries versus commercial interests.”
On private wireless, it's unclear at this point exactly where the pendulum is going to swing, the analyst concluded.
Read our reporting on what to expect from the Trump 2.0 administration here.